Any designation of the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization by the United States would have serious implications for South Africa, especially for advocacy and fundraising groups. This was discussed by South Africa's Mail & Guardian in an article by U.S. foreign policy expert Michael Walsh. In his article, published Tuesday, Walsh interviews Zineb Riboua, a Moroccan research fellow with the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. Riboua explains that there will likely be serious consequences for South African NGOs and fundraising groups supporting the Polisario if they don't sever ties once the group is flagged as a terrorist organization. She explains that while «some actors — especially mainstream NGOs — [who] would likely step back to avoid legal exposure», others, «motivated by ideology or religious solidarity» may «continue their support covertly». Riboua predicts that if the South African government does not back the enforcement of a future designation «internally», the second group of «fringe actors» could persist, but they will face greater isolation, heightened monitoring, and significant financial risks. Another potential consequence is the negative impact on South Africa's economy. According to Riboua, any such designation could lead to increased international scrutiny of South Africa's banking system. She alleges that «certain individuals or NGOs in South Africa may have engaged in fundraising or advocacy» for the Polisario Front. This heightened international scrutiny would undoubtedly be an unwelcome development for South African banks. Riboua argues that this could result in more financial transactions being «flagged more often by global compliance systems», potentially exposing South African banks to «reputational damage, derisking, and even secondary sanctions». Furthermore, it could even lead to the imposition of targeted sanctions (such as Magnitsky sanctions) and/or the designation of South Africa as a state sponsor of terrorism. These concerns follow U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson's recent announcement of a forthcoming bill to designate the Polisario as a terrorist organization under U.S. law.
